Probabilistic modeling of time to first Covid-19 infection in a city connected to another in exponential growth infections
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59681/2175-4411.v15.iEspecial.2023.1089Keywords:
Covid-19, Infectious Disease Transmission, Disease Hot SpotAbstract
After the firsts Covid-19 infection in Brazil, in which initial cases occurred in some metropolises, its regional spread continued to smaller cities connected to these centers, in a process of internalization of infections. Models that explain this phenomenon can help in preparing necessary actions to contain new cases. Therefore, the present work proposes a novel random variable that models probability of delay, in days, of first infection in a smaller city coupled to an already infected center, a city with community transmission of infection. This novel variable and its probability distribution are formulated under general theoretical assumptions, while a methodology of its use is exemplified in the real scenario of the cities of Espírito Santo state - Brazil, in which the results corroborate the utility of the novel variable in risk assessment of first infection by import.
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Copyright (c) 2023 Thiago Santos Silva, Patrick Ciarelli, Jugurta Montalvão, Evandro Salles
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